The Pre-Mortem: Helping Teens Anticipate What Could Go Wrong
Things Fall Apart?
Meet Ethan (not his real name).
We’re talking on Google Meet on a Tuesday evening, mapping out his homework plan.
"I'll spend 45 minutes on AP Gov – finish the last 15 minutes of that documentary and then answer the questions. That should take 30 minutes. Then I'll do 30 minutes of Quizlet for AP Chem to review the concepts for Friday's test."
Sensible time forecasting, manageable amount of work - we agreed it was a good plan.
Alas. I check in with him on Wednesday, and the story is different: "Yeah, so... I watched part of the documentary, but then my friend Jake started texting about some breakup drama with his girlfriend. By the time that was over, it was midnight, and I just went to sleep. Sort-of-did the AP. Didn't get to the Chem review at all."
How can you, as a parent or coach, help here?
We've found that many teens struggle with the act of making a plan. When will you do your homework? In what conditions? How long will it take?
So we practice that, daily, for at least 3 weeks.
Others struggle with follow-through.
They can’t see how things might fall apart. And being reminded of previous instances of bad plans tends to trigger some defensiveness. “Oh that was because of a track meet. That was because my teacher made up a random assignment. That was because I had a math quiz that was higher priority.”
Their plans are suffused with optimism: no distractions, perfect focus, and tasks that take exactly as long as they expect.
But then life doesn’t cooperate - things get in the way.
That's why we've incorporated the "pre-mortem" into our coaching toolkit.
What is a pre-mortem?
The term "pre-mortem" was popularized from Nobel Prize-winning psychologist Daniel Kahneman. While a post-mortem examines what went wrong after failure, a pre-mortem imagines failure … before it happens. So there’s less baggage!
As Kahneman explains it: "It's a year from now. We implemented the plan as it now exists. The outcome was a disaster. Write a brief history of that disaster."
We've adapted this concept for teens in a simpler format:
"Imagine it's tomorrow, and your plan completely fell apart. You'd rate its execution a 1 out of 5. What happened?"
What do kids sound like when they’re pre-mortem-ing?
When Ethan laid out his homework plan, I asked: "If this plan gets a 1 or 2 rating tomorrow, what would have gone wrong?"
After thinking, he said:
"Well... I might get distracted by texts. Or the documentary might be really boring and I'd keep pausing it. Or the questions might take way longer than 30 minutes. Or I might be more tired than I think after track practice."
Then Ethan started problem-solving:
"I should probably put my phone in another room. And maybe I'll set a timer for the documentary to keep myself accountable. If I'm really tired after practice, I'll do the Chem review first since that's more important for Friday."
This simple exercise transformed a naive plan into something more robust.
Why do pre-mortems sometimes work?
They do a few things -
They counter optimism bias. Most of us (especially teens) underestimate how long tasks will take and overestimate our focus and energy.
They reduce surprise. When obstacles appear, they don't derail you completely because you've already considered them.
They prompt preventative measures. By anticipating specific problems, teens can build defenses against them.
They lower stakes. Thinking about failure beforehand makes it less catastrophic when things don't go perfectly. And you’re less defensive about it because it’s an act of imagination.
Try one? And then read our other blog about why they sometimes don’t work.
